The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, commonly known as NATO, was created as a counter to the Soviet Union after the Second World War ended. Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the alliance was compelled to transform. NATO refocused its interests on the new Russian Federation and expanded the alliance to the newly created countries that were once a part of the Warsaw Pact. This expansion has never sat well with Russia. In November of 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine for the second time in 10 years. One of the main reasons for the conflict in 2022 was the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. With the rise of President Donald Trump’s second term in office, NATO has faced immense scrutiny. Now, Elon Musk and Senator Mike Lee, a Republican from Utah, have gone as far as to openly call for the United States’ withdrawal from the alliance. This article briefly explores some of the global ramifications of an American exit from NATO.
Europe may benefit in the long-term
The United States plays a crucial role in Europe’s defense against external threats, specifically Russia. Many European nations recognized this and reaped the benefits of American security. In 2014, according to Statistica.com, only 3/28 NATO members met the required 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) spent on their defense budget. In 2023, this number rose to 10/30, and in 2024, 23/31 NATO members spent 2% of their GDP on defense. If the United States were to withdraw from NATO, the alliance would lose out on the second largest nuclear arsenal, the largest air force, and the world's largest GDP (and many more benefits). Losing all these benefits would leave European nations no choice but to become more self-dependent. States such as Germany and/or France would have to assume leadership roles in revitalizing Europe’s ability to stand alone. They would also have to take on a priority role in supporting the Ukrainian war effort against Russia.
Effects on America
Depending on one’s personal political beliefs, leaving NATO may be either a positive or a negative decision. If President Trump decides to withdraw the United States from NATO, the United States will take a drastic swing towards a more isolationist foreign policy. The United States would not have to worry about countering Russia against European powers or getting dragged into a conflict if Russia were to potentially invade the Baltic States (for example). On the contrary, if the United States were to withdraw from NATO, the European nations would no longer have obligations to join a war in the scenario that China is the aggressor towards the United States. As stated earlier, one may see either positives or negatives of America’s membership in NATO. If you prefer a more isolationist American foreign policy, then leaving NATO may be more appealing. Whereas one who believes that collaboration between the United States, Canada, and the rest of NATO is quintessential to securing a more stable international community might despise the idea of the United States leaving NATO.
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