NATO at a Crossroads: Germany and Poland Take on Rising Leadership Roles

Germany and Poland

As there are currently talks in the United States Department of Defense about possibly withdrawing 10,000 American troops from Eastern Europe, all evidence is hinting towards less American involvement in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), or even a potential full withdrawal from the military alliance. If the United States were to pull back involvement or leave the alliance outright, a massive power vacuum would be created in Europe and the alliance. Which 2 NATO members are in the best position to assume more of a leadership role in NATO if American involvement is diminished? 

Germany 

• Germany is in the best position out of all NATO members to take on a leadership role in NATO if the United States were to pull back. With the largest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between Europe and Canada, Germany is the most fiscally equipped state to take on America’s role. It almost seems as if Germany is currently already planning to do so as they have increased defense spending and increased their military involvement abroad. Recently, Germany has stationed troops outside its borders for the first time since World War II. They created a small military force in the Capital of Lithuania, Vilnius. In the wake of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Germany has acknowledged that the geopolitical climate in Europe has shifted, and they must not rely on the United States as they once previously did.  

Poland 

• Poland currently allocates more of its GDP to military spending than any other NATO member. In 2025, 4.7% of the Polish GDP went to military spending (Reuters). Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Polish involvement in geopolitical issues has been on an upward trend. According to the Danish Institute for International Studies, Poland looks to increase its land force to 300,000 making it the largest land force in the European Union (diis.dk). Poland has also been one of the largest contributors to the Ukrainian war effort in both humanitarian and military aid. It is also important to note that Poland’s strategic position to counter Russia, protect the Baltics, and provide support to Ukraine serves immense value to NATO. Poland’s proximity to Kaliningrad, (a Russian enclave bordered by Poland and Lithuania) serves as a phenomenal advantage in diminishing Russian influence in the Baltic Sea. Also, Poland is the only NATO country that shares a land border with a Baltic State, Lithuania. The mixture of Poland’s increased involvement in foreign affairs, high military spending, and proximity to Russia makes them a rising power throughout Europe and NATO.