Türkiye, a nation cognizant of its relevance to geopolitics, has been navigating the geopolitical world in a unique fashion. Erdogan, the authoritarian “president” of the Republic of Türkiye, is conscious of the value they bring to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and constantly looks to push the envelope as to what they can get away with. This includes postponing the admittance of Sweden and Finland to NATO over their ties with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a deep recent history with Greece over conflicts in the Aegean Sea, and most recently, the possible intervention in Syria over the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The strength of the Turkish military, the geographical importance of the Bosphorus Strait, and the influence and proximity that Türkiye possesses over the Middle East makes them an irreplaceable ally of America and NATO. Since the recent developments in Syria, Türkiye may take an opportunistic approach and move into SDF-controlled land.
Since the recent fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the SDF has grown in territory and power. The SDF is a majority Kurdish, American-backed, left-wing rebel group fighting for increased autonomy in a Syrian State. An estimated 30-45 million ethnic Kurds are living in the “Kurdistan” region, which consists of a large swath of land that stretches between Türkiye, Iraq, Iran, and northern Syria. The portion of Syria the SDF controls. The SDF poses an imminent threat to Turkish sovereignty. If the SDF succeeds in establishing its autonomy, operations may spill into southeast Türkiye, which is ethnically Kurdish. Approximately 15 million ethnic Kurds live in Türkiye. Throughout modern Turkish history, there has been frequent conflict between the Turkish government and Kurdish insurgent groups like the PKK. As Türkiye continues to maneuver the daunting geopolitical realm of the Middle East, eradicating any possibility of a Kurdish nation-state remains at the top of Erdogan’s checklist.
Turkish involvement in SDF-controlled Syria is not as simple as one may think. The SDF has a crucial ally in the United States. Under the Biden administration, expect America’s support for the SDF to be continuously uninterrupted. It is definitive that Türkiye will not move into Syria under the Biden administration. However, expect the situation between Türkiye and the SDF to evolve under President Trump’s second term. In 2019, during the end of President Trump’s first term in office, he withdrew American troops from Syria, essentially abandoning the SDF. This withdrawal of forces enabled Erdogan to move into Syria almost immediately after the removal of American troops. Trump’s view of a more isolationist America is beneficial for Turkish involvement in the SDF. With the fall of Assad’s government, Russian involvement in Syria is now non-existent. If President Trump pulls back support for the SDF and Russia is no longer involved in Syria, Turkish influence will face unprecedented growth in the region.
Türkiye already controls some buffer zones sporadically along their border with the SDF. Since the fall of Assad’s government, Türkiye's desire to expand its buffer zone to counter the SDF. The Wall Street Journal has stated that Türkiye has been building its military presence on the Syrian border. The question is more about how Türkiye will involve themselves further in the SDF as to whether they will attack the SDF. It is nearly inevitable that Türkiye will invade the SDF. It is not unlikely that Erdogan will look to fully eradicate the SDF to minimize any potential spillover of unrest into the Kurdish population in Türkiye. Or Türkiye may look to establish a fully connected buffer zone along their border with the SDF. Either way, expect more Turkish involvement in Syria, specifically the SDF, in the upcoming months.
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