Winners and Losers of Trump's Second Term

Donald Trump, one of the most polarizing political figures regarding foreign policy. As the former president prepares to serve his second term, the world braces for a potential overhaul in the geopolitical world. Evidence from President Trump’s first term only suggests a more “America First” approach in terms of geopolitics. This outlook will certainly shake up America’s relations with many countries. This article will be diving into the two biggest winners and losers of President Trump’s second term in office 

WINNERS 

1. Israel - During former President Trump’s first term in office, there was no doubt about his support for Israel. In 2017 Trump moved the United States Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Trump also recognized Jerusalem as the Israeli capital in 2017. Both moves were extremely controversial and caused Trump to be condemned by many world leaders. The former President is very well accepted among the Jewish community in the United States, and the citizens of Israel. Often being titled “the most pro-Israeli President,” he has strong ties to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Abraham Accords, brought to life by Trump are documents intended to normalize relations between Israel and Muslim nations (Morocco, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Sudan). For example, between Israel and Morocco, the Trump administration recognized Moroccan control over the entire Western Sahara region. In exchange for normalization between Israel and Morocco. Trump has also promised to lift all weapon sale restrictions placed on the Israeli government under the Biden administration. Evidence from Trump’s first term only suggests a favorable attitude toward Israel will certainly continue. The Israeli government will certainly be jubilant for the return of President Trump.  

   
   

2. Taiwan - Taiwan reeks immense benefits from President Trump being reelected. Trump is notorious for his outlook on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). He recognizes the threat that the Chinese Government induces on America and therefore is a staunch supporter of the Taiwanese. The main reason why the Taiwanese are such substantial winners of Trump’s reelection is more that he is conscience of countering China than supporting the Taiwanese. Taiwan is by far the largest semiconductor producer in the world, any conflict between Taipei and Beijing would have significant implications for the American economy. Also, the sovereignty of Taiwan should be used as an example to the Chinese that appeasement will not be tolerated concerning their aggressive geopolitical Ambitions. 

Losers 

1. Mexico – The future of Mexico fares off much worse under President Trump than it could have been under Kamala Harris. Much of Trump’s policies are not aligned with the success of the Mexican government. Tariffs on imports and potential mass deportation are quite alarming subjects for the Mexican government. Many American businesses that have decided to move their factories to Mexico to enjoy the benefits of cheap labor may see themselves in a dilemma. Take on the “Trump tariffs” and stay in Mexico or abandon the cheap labor and move company factories back to America. The Trump tariffs may cause rapid loss of industry for the Mexican economy. Since the Biden administration, there have been 7.8 million encounters with migrants at the southern border between America and Mexico (homeland.house.gov). The last estimate of the undocumented migrant population living in the United States from the Department of Homeland Security was in 2022, with an estimated 11 million. Trump has said many times that he will be executing a mass deportation plan. This would have serious negative effects on Mexico. Most migrants who illegally cross the border have minimal documentation which makes it extremely difficult for the American government to trace their origins. Due to the logistical challenges of a mass deportation plan, the Trump administration may resort to sending undocumented migrants across the southern border. An influx of undocumented migrants in Mexico with minimal personal resources who are unable to reenter the United States would incredibly overwhelm the Mexican government. The Mexican government is currently facing a plethora of problems, and Trump’s second term in office certainly will not make things better for Mexico City.  

   
   

2. Iran- This one is quite simple; Iran is the “biggest loser” geopolitically speaking after President Trump’s reelection. During Trump’s first term, he was extremely stern towards Iran. The Iranian government is incredibly hostile with their geopolitics in the Middle East with their support of documented terrorist groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. Due to America, and more specifically Trump’s strong ties to Israel, expect Trump to be incredibly strict regarding the Iranian government. During Trump’s campaign, he expressed reigniting strict tariffs on the Iranian economy. These tariffs will look to haul the immense profits that Tehran gains from trading oil. Trump seeks to halt Iranian geopolitical interests in the Middle East by strangling the Iranian economy.